New quality productivity is a kind of production mode represented by high-quality development, led by science and technology, and mainly characterized by sustainable development and low-carbon development.
The "resilience" of economic development refers to a country's ability to cope with uncertainties, internal and external pressures and risks in the process of economic development.
The two unswervingly need to be implemented in a sustainable systematic institutional mechanism, and cannot replace long-term strategies and institutional mechanisms with temporary policy measures.
Chinese-style modernization means that China should conduct a profound reflection and review based on the long-term historical process of global modernization, and create a modernization path with Chinese characteristics based on China's own national conditions, and contribute Chinese values and Chinese paradigm to the world.
"The world today is experiencing a subversive 'great divergence' of the global geopolitical pattern and economic and financial pattern, and this process is extremely complex and extremely violent." At such a crucial moment of historical transition, China should consolidate the 'base' of economic development, enhance the 'resilience' of economic development, maintain the 'determination' of deepening reform and institutional opening up, firmly grasp the overall goal of 'Chinese-style modernization', and systematically and persistently promote 'people-centered development'."
On December 25, 2023, Wang Shuguang, professor of the School of Economics of Peking University and executive deputy director of the Institute of Industry and Culture of Peking University, delivered a keynote speech at the eighth Annual Conference of Era Memory in 2023, exporting his insights around several key signals released at the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2023.
Strengthen the manufacturing industry, China's future sustainable development of the biggest confidence
Wang Shuguang pointed out that China is an important engine for the sustainable development of the global economy, an important "ballast stone" to maintain the stability of the global supply chain and industrial chain, and plays an irreplaceable role in global economic growth. According to the estimates of the World Bank, China will contribute more than 30% of global economic growth in 2023, making it a veritable economic "locomotive".
In his view, the highlight of this is China's manufacturing industry: "The core of the development of a region and a country lies in the manufacturing industry, and the manufacturing industry plays a role of a 'base'." The biggest foundation for China's sustainable development in the future is that we have a strong manufacturing industry."
Wang Shuguang added that according to the data in 2022, the added value of China's industrial production capacity has reached nearly one-third (30.3%) of the world's total industrial added value, which is almost equivalent to the total industrial added value of the world's major industrial countries (the United States, Japan, Britain, France, Germany and Italy). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its forecast of China's economic growth rate in 2023 to 5.4%, which shows that the international community is positive about the long-term situation of China's economy.
In addition, Wang Shuguang combined several sets of data, further listed several highlights of China's economy in 2023 from the dimensions of import and export trade, green industry, key scientific and technological breakthroughs, and pointed out the huge potential of China's economic growth in the future.
In 2023, China's total import and export trade will rank first in the world, effectively leading the flow and allocation of global production factors, and playing a crucial role in stabilizing the global value chain and industrial chain. Wang Shuguang added: "China's exports of mechanical and electrical products have increased by about 80 percent this year, while China's exports of labor-intensive products have only increased by 10 percent. This shows that China has begun to occupy the high-end part of the global industrial chain and no longer lingers in the low-end part."
In 2023, China will become the "leader" in leading the global green and low-carbon development, and China's new energy vehicles will occupy nearly 1/3 of the global market. China's new energy industry is playing a benchmarking demonstration and leading role in the development of the world's green industry. In 2023, China broke through the Western technological blockade in key technologies such as chips; In 2023, China has successively held national exhibitions such as the Consumer Goods Fair, the Service Trade Fair, and the Import Expo, which have attracted worldwide attention, and built a win-win cooperation platform for global manufacturers.
"China's economy is at a critical moment of climbing, economic industries are transforming, and high-tech is becoming a 'locomotive' to support China's economic growth." Domestic demand and investment demand have shrunk in the past two years, but we need to see bright spots. Wang Shuguang describes the focus of China's future economic development from two levels.
On the one hand, we need to strengthen the foundation of the Chinese economy. We need to promote common prosperity, provide more development opportunities for low - and middle-income people, and benefit them more deeply from the dividends of reform and development, so as to further eliminate the problems of "imbalance" and "insufficiency" in economic development. China should invest more in the area of people's livelihood, strengthen infrastructure construction and public service supply in rural areas and less developed areas, and achieve inclusive growth.
On the other hand, it is necessary to build the "upper level" of the Chinese economy. Scientific and technological innovation should be further encouraged to build China's economic growth on the basis of new quality productivity. In his speech, Wang Shuguang elaborated on the new term "new quality productivity" : "It is a production mode represented by high-quality development, guided by science and technology, and mainly characterized by sustainable development and low-carbon development." We should give top priority to leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and use technology to drive the development of new quality productivity."
We will strengthen the resilience of China's economic development through a resilient model
Wang Shuguang first briefly introduced the definition of "resilience" in economic development, that is, a country's ability to cope with uncertainties, internal and external pressures and risks in the process of economic development. "The more resilient an economy is, the more it has the ability to maneuver and self-regulate, the more it can develop strong resilience to cope with future developments." The same goes for companies." Wang Shuguang said.
In the Central Economic Conference held in December 2023, the two keywords of "first standing before breaking" and "seeking progress in stability" were mentioned. Wang Shuguang believes that the essence of these two words is to build a flexible institutional mechanism to avoid rigid, rigid, overnight, one-size-fits-all system design. In the process of the transformation of economic growth mode and the upgrading of industrial structure, China can realize the gradual implementation of policies in a flexible institutional framework.
"When dealing with overcapacity, some local governments have adopted drastic policies and crude methods, using simplified methods to 'shut down and transfer' (shut down, suspend operations, merge and switch production), hoping to eliminate all those manufacturing industries with high pollution and energy consumption, which has greatly affected local economic growth, employment and people's livelihood," Wang Shuguang said, citing practical examples from the steel industry.
"This is why the recent Central Economic Work Conference proposed to 'first stand before breaking', which is to emphasize systematic and progressive institutional arrangements, and take into account the progressive nature of technological innovation, people's livelihood employment and transitional policy measures for the transformation of the old and the new in the process of solving the transformation of momentum and industrial structure." At the same time, we should also pay attention to the cultivation of new growth points, pay attention to the construction of the social security system, so that the transformation of kinetic energy will happen naturally." Wang Shuguang called this system arrangement "elastic mode".
To strengthen the resilience of China's economic development, we also need to dynamically manage the risks facing the Chinese economy. Wang Shuguang pointed out that China is currently facing three major risks: real estate risk, local debt risk, and risk of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and there is a linkage effect among the three. He advocated the use of system dynamic thinking to resolve the above risks, in the process of risk disposal, pay special attention to the gradual and systematic.
"These three major risks are actually more serious, but China must not implement a 'big bang plan' in one step." We need to find a flexible and diversified resolution mechanism through gradual and systematic institutional arrangements and by giving full play to the initiative of the government, the market and the central and local governments." Wang Shuguang suggested.
We will stay focused on deepening reform and institutional opening up
Wang Shuguang explained in his speech that maintaining concentration is to persevere, be consistent, and do a good job without interruption, and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that it is necessary to "continuously improve the implementation of the 'two unwavering' systems and mechanisms". He further explained "concentration" from three aspects.
First, we must consistently build a sustainable systemic mechanism and system to encourage and support the development and growth of the private economy. Wang Shuguang pointed out that the private economy is the main source of economic growth, employment, financial revenue and residents' income, and China's 100 million private households and individual economy are the "main plate" of China's economic development and people's livelihood construction.
"The 'two unwavering' should be specifically implemented on sustainable systemic institutional mechanisms, and temporary policy measures cannot replace long-term strategies and institutional mechanisms." This means that in the process of supporting the development of the private economy, local governments should establish long-term and strategic institutional mechanisms such as fiscal and tax support systems, financial support systems, and government service systems." Wang Shuguang said that the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to vigorously support the development and growth of the private economy, emphasizing the implementation of a number of measures in market access, access to factors, fair law enforcement, rights and interests protection, etc., which are institutional and institutional measures proposed from the perspective of "curing the root cause", rather than temporary "curing the symptoms" policy measures.
Second, we must consistently focus on high-quality economic development. We must deeply understand that "economic development is the master key to solving all problems". The current economic construction is no longer a "project" type of economic construction that emphasizes scale, but a high-quality economic construction, sustainable and high-quality development, and an economic construction driven by science and technology.
Whether it is to handle the relationship between "establishing" and "breaking", or to handle the relationship between "advancing" and "stability", we must start from the premise of "economic development". "The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the inclusion of non-economic policies in the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientation, which means that the various policies introduced in the future will be more cautious, more systematic, and pay more attention to the coordination and cohesion between policies, so as not to affect the overall momentum of economic development and market stability." Wang Shuguang pointed out.
Third, we need to consistently promote high-level institutional opening-up. Wang Shuguang further explained that this kind of opening up is equal and inclusive, rather than giving foreign investment with "super national treatment", and what really attracts foreign investment is a good business environment and a fair competition environment. Promoting high-level institutional opening up means that China will continue to carry out institutional reform. The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed "marketization, rule of law, and internationalization", which is a prerequisite for attracting international capital and further expanding high-level institutional opening up.
"Against the backdrop of some Western countries' decoupling of China, China must send a clear signal of high-level institutional opening-up to the world, and increase its efforts to attract international capital and talents, so as to further boost foreign direct investment." "But opening up is not unconditional," Mr. Wang added. "China's economic opening, financial opening and industrial opening must take into account economic security, financial security and industrial security."
Achieving "people-centered development" through Chinese-style modernization
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "we must take the promotion of Chinese-style modernization as the biggest politics", Wang Shuguang believes that this formulation is far-reaching.
In his speech, Wang Shuguang elaborated his interpretation of Chinese modernization: "The core of Chinese modernization is to gradually realize industrialization and modernization in a poor and backward country with a large population. This historical process of industrialization and modernization is centered on the people, and the happiness of the people is the ultimate basis and the highest goal. It means that China should conduct a profound reflection and review based on the long-term historical process of global modernization, and create a modernization path with Chinese characteristics based on China's own national conditions, and contribute Chinese values and Chinese paradigm to the world."
Wang Shuguang uses four "must's" to explain his views on how to achieve Chinese-style modernization.
First, we must take "high-quality development" as the core, further promote economic stability and progress, further encourage and support scientific and technological innovation and scientific and technological progress, and establish a new national system integrating production, university and research and facing the global market, so as to provide strong scientific and technological support for China's future sustainable development. Second, we must intensify efforts to improve people's livelihood, further promote the all-round revitalization of rural areas, and strive to build a modern agricultural power. Third, we must further open up, promote high-level institutional opening up, deepen reform through opening up, promote high-level opening up through reform, and pay close attention to national economic security and financial security while opening up. Fourth, we must establish the concept of "one chess game for the whole country", build a stable mechanism for coordinated and balanced development among regions and mutual support among localities, build a symbiotic and common prosperity system for cooperation and mutual support between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and build a flexible and resilient talent growth mechanism and inter-class mobility mechanism, so that China's development is full of vitality.
On how to further stimulate the development momentum of China's private manufacturing industry, Wang Shuguang put forward four suggestions: promote technological innovation, increase investment in technology research and development, and train more high-quality technical personnel; Promote industrial transformation and upgrading, adjust the industrial structure in a timely manner according to market demand, promote the upgrading of traditional industries, and promote the transformation of the manufacturing industry from low-end manufacturing to medium and high-end manufacturing. Promote enterprises to go global and build brands and enterprises with international competitiveness; Maintain the strategic focus of the main business, identify the industry positioning, maintain differentiated competitive advantages, and be good at mining and using strategic opportunities in the economic downturn, and moderately diversified development.
"I have full confidence in China's private manufacturing industry, and China will become a global center for high-level manufacturing." Wang Shuguang said excitedly at the end of his speech. In the critical period of the rise of China and the struggle between great powers, Wang Shuguang sent 5 words and 10 words for the majority of private enterprises - static determination, new, ambitious, forward-looking and abundant. He hopes that the majority of private enterprises will seize the opportunities in the next five years, look at the future and plan for the overall situation, and accumulate momentum.
Email
Email